Apple Kills Microsoft Going Forward (With An Assist From Google), An Opus

I was pretty hesitant to write yet another post in glowing praise of Apple, I’ve simply done it too often for it to really mean anything anymore, I know that. Instead I thought I would simply point to quite a few of my previous posts, all of which pretty bluntly state that Apple is the way going forward. But then I remember that there are in fact some people out there who still do not seem to get it – we’ve already entered the ‘Age of Apple‘.

Now it wasn’t when I bought my first Mac just about 2 years ago that I realized this – no, it was when 17 people I knew, all lifelong PC users, also bought one shortly after. I saw a trend, and unfortunately for Microsoft, it was not a limited trend. Still, Microsoft had hope for, if not a recovery, at least a stopgap: Windows Vista. That has turned out to be about the equivalent of sticking a piece of gum in a crack on the Hoover Dam. Not only did it not work – it simply built up the pressure even more and just caused the crack to spread out. It’s about to burst.

Apple crushed their earnings’ forecast today and quite a few people seemed surprised (namely everyone on Wallstreet, if not pleasantly). I am not in the least bit surprised. The writing has been on the wall for quite some time now, no one wanted to read it. People still say that Apple can’t make inroads on Windows – well guess what, they are, and they’ll continue to do so until they either drop the ball or Microsoft’s completely reorganizes the top of the company and they start anew.

Please just take a good look at the picture that heads up this post. That line at the bottom may look like a baseline, but guess what? That’s Microsoft. That red line? Yeah, Apple. That is how far Apple has come in 5 years both in stock price and public perception, while Microsoft, well, you can see it.

Yes, Microsoft still has an utterly commanding lead in the computer desktop world – but that world is quickly evolving. Just look at the figures at various schools, what are the young people buying in droves? Macs. Guess what? Young people grow up to be older people. They keep using Macs. This is how it works. Apple doesn’t need to convert every single Windows user (though the ones like me certainly don’t hurt), they’re leading a revolution from the inside out.

Microsoft thinks that they can’ t be defeated, they think that everyone is going to need Windows and Microsoft Office forever. Well I’m going to put a guess out there that in 10-20 years, neither will exist. The problem is that while I know this now, and while many others know this, Microsoft does not know this – or at least makes no indication that they do. A smart company would evolve, not stagnate. Microsoft is the IBM of yesteryear – and guess who Apple just soared past in value? IBM.

Google is going to take out Microsoft’s knees, but Apple is going to go for the jugular. You see, Microsoft hasn’t ever had any real legs to stand on in the online world yet, so they’re easy to trip and knock down over and over again – but in their bread-and-butter desktop world, that’s where Apple is going to deliver the deathly blow when they’re on the ground, stunned by Google.

Apple need do but two things:
1) Make the low end of their computers slightly more affordable
2) Keep their foot on the gas pedal

During the Gamecube days, people thought Nintendo might be done as a hardware maker. They innovated and came back – still people thought they’d be a nice addition to the gaming world but just a sidenote – they’re now worth more than Sony.

The same exact thing is happening with Apple, it’s just going to take a little bit longer because the stakes are higher and Microsoft has the funds in its war chest to fight a battle for years to come.

But as I said, young people grow up. The start using Macs, they continue using Macs. Market share starts going from a slow creep up to a rush. Microsoft is distracted by Google and foolishly thinks they need to become an online advertising company – Apple will steal their old-faithful market. Microsoft thinks they can fall back on Office. In 10 years everything is going to be completely online and I’ve got news for you: Google Docs is nicer than Microsoft’s online version of Office – and since Microsoft took so goddamn long coming out with a competent version of Office for Mac (meaning one not over 3 years old – when Apple has completely transitioned to Intel chips) – which by the way STILL isn’t out yet and won’t be for months – those same students buying Macs are finding other viable word processing solutions in Google Docs, Pages, and the like.

The writing is on the wall. Hell, Microsoft watched Apple write it there and has been trying to copy it ever since. Unfortunately Microsoft can’t seem to spell these days. But the people who can – the people who are learning right now in schools across this country – they’re buying their Macs and they’re quickly growing up. They’re the real ones who are going to kill Microsoft – and all Microsoft can do in response is offer them a discount on Office.

  • Michael Markman
    Don't count too heavily on young Mac users growing up and taking their preference into the workplace. This was an Apple stragegy from the get-go, and it turned out to be a pipe dream. Apple began cultivating the college and university market even before the Mac launched. It was very successful.


    But here's what happened when the students graduated and entered the workforce: they didn't get a choice of which computer to use. There was a computer placed on their desk, paid for by their department, and approved by the corporate IT department. "But I want a Mac. This computer sucks," was just a whine that didn't cut it. And that was when it was Mac vs. DOS.



    Lots of IT folks greeted Windows as a great way to get the whiney young Mac pukes to shut up.



    The equation is slightly different now, but Mac has still not made very much headway with enterprise IT.



    There are glimmers of hope: anecdotally, start-ups seem much more Mac friendly than established Fortune 500s, Mac on Intel plus Parallels means the barrier is now permeable (but that's still going to cost the department significantly more than a vanilla Windows computer), Apple is brand ascendant and Windows is in the brand doldrums.



    But in the big picture, those are still just glimmers of hope. Time will tell.
  • MG Siegler
    All solid points Michael. But I see two major differences between now and then: 1) The Internet. 2) OS X


    The Internet is going to break corporations reliance on Microsoft products more and more going forward. This will in turn break the necessity for Windows over OS X (or Linux for that matter).



    There may not be much headway yet in the IT world, but your 'glimmers of hope' are all valid and I think will gain speed.



    As for Apple always trying to break into schools to get users early, that is very true. In grade and high school we had Macs but I hated them compared to my home PC. The difference now is that those were the pre-OS X days.



    Since switching to OS X, I have absolutely no desire to ever buy a Windows machine again. The jump down from OS X to Windows (both XP and Vista) is staggering to me (I still use a PC at work).



    I must go to use things like spotlight and expose a dozen times a day on the PC, only to be extremely frustrated to be jolted back into reality that I am using Windows.



    Time will tell indeed, but I think Apple is very much on the right path this time whereas I never thought so before.



    Thanks for the comment.
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