Google: Like A Rock (That Is, Falling Like One)

Google has thus far today dropped another 5% of its stock price to drop below the $500 mark for the first time since last August. Remember, up until the final days in December the stock was still over $700 a share, and it was near the $750 a share level (with everyone talking $1000) back in November.

So what is it that’s caused such a rapid swing? Well it’s seemingly been 3 main factors:

1) the crap economy
2) missed earnings for the first time
3) Microsoft trying to buy Yahoo

Yet even with those three major developments, it seems a bit odd that Google would fall so far so quickly.

Yes, Google missed Wall Street projections of price per share – by one penny. Net revenue was off – of the projections – $60 million dollars, but still up. And when you consider the revenue was $3.39 billion dollar, $60 million doesn’t seem like an unreasonable amount to be off in a slowing economy that analysts no doubt didn’t anticipate to slow as much as it did. Net income rose, revenue rose, revenue from AdSense rose – and they all rose substantially. Yet still everyone is freaking out.

And so, in some ways we have a case of perception being reality. Google is really not much different today then they were in November when they were at $750. Even if a Microsoft purchase of Yahoo were to go through, Google would still have the absolute dominant position in both search and online advertising – where the money comes from.

It’s a lot like the situation with Apple right now – bad…for short-term investors.

With online advertising still expected to grow despite a worsening economy, unless Google really messes something up in the next year, this rapid descent in stock price may just mean one thing for a lot of people: buy.

More thoughts:

  • Antoine
    Domain taster:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domain_taster



    Interesting.
  • Anonymous
    The fact that the Blogosphere misses is that GOOG, doesn't really "make" anything. And while revolutionizing the searching of the web, or making great leaps in the indexing of data, doesn't warrant the price of their stock, or any other company in Wall Streets mind. Especially since the economy is going down the crapper. Right now GOOG has a market cap of about 150 billion. And Caterpillar (the folks who make backhoes) has a market cap of about 45 billion. This will change when folks in the world start requesting tangible goods, and not just Web 2.0. The stock price of GOOG can flourish in an artificial boom, but will wither once everyone realizes they can't eat adsense clicks. Pretty simple.
  • Brij Singh
    MG - I noticed the same trend. Noticed that they underperformed nasdaq for the first time -


    http://www.messagedance.com/message/show/95f74d2789e3f319cac823f9c92dfc74
  • Anonymous
    Perception is usually a lot different than reality. Take Microsoft for example... they just had a blowout quarter, Vista sales are through the roof, the Xbox division just turned a profit, and they're only up $5 a share. Microsoft makes more money a year than 10 Apples, and yet they get no love in the stock market. That's just how it is.
  • I'm blackout
    @scammer: What is a domain taster?


    @MG Siegler:

    I find it hard to believe that such a drop in Google stock can be attributed to a mistake due to a calculations error. I don't think you're giving people on Wall Street enough credit for their financial models.
  • Scammer Sam
    You missed one other important bit of news. Google recently announced that they will no longer allow domain tasters to put AdSense on their sites. This will result in Google losing millions of dollars of revenue every day.
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