ParisLemon » Xbox 3 (4?) and Wii 2 Likely by 2010, but No PS4 Until 2015?

Xbox 3 (4?) and Wii 2 Likely by 2010, but No PS4 Until 2015?

Gaming industry analysts Pacfic Crest Securities have stated that they believe both Microsoft and Nintendo will have new gaming consoles out by 2010 – just 2 years from now. This might seem reasonable, except that they also expect the Playstation 3 to have a 10-year life cycle, meaning Sony wouldn’t release a new system until closer to the middle part of that decade?

If the recent trends and estimates pan out for this year it looks like Nintendo’s Wii will continue to dominate the market while the Playstation 3 starts selling like crazy and eventually overtakes Microsoft’s Xbox 360. If this holds true, it makes sense that Microsoft would want to be the first to market with a new console in a few years, as they have benefited from being the first to the market in this current generation.

Microsoft also happens to have a console which appears to have an awful 16% rate of failure. Not good.

So say Microsoft launches a new Xbox in 2010, it’s hard to imagine both Nintendo and Sony not responding with new consoles of their own. Even if Microsoft’s new console wasn’t that much more “next-gen” than the current iterations, it would be perceived as such simply being newer.

If Sony waited 5 or 6 years after that to launched their next console, the results could be disastrous for them – much more disasterous than launching a $600 console when another competitor (Nintendo) had one for $249.

Who really knows though, by the middle of the next decade mobile gaming could be even bigger than it is now and the consoles might be a secondary business to many of these companies – which would be very bad news for Microsoft seeing as they don’t have a mobile game device.

[photo: flickr/MNgilen]

Post by MG Siegler on 02/14/08
Comments

I'm blackout

If they can make the console more reliable, backward compatible with the current games, and first to market, I think it would be a slam dunk.

Devindra

Many have been touting the "10 year lifespan" of the PS3 since its inception, and while I doubt it may last that long it's certainly going to be the last of the current consoles to get refreshed.

The Wii has seen huge success since its initial release, and the 360 has been doing extremely well among hardcore gamer types. This has left the PS3 in the dust up until this year, when some of the bigger titles like MGS4 and FFXIII should finally start moving units in greater numbers. The Blu-ray win, and an inevitable price break later this year, will also greatly help their case.

Given that it's taken so long for the PS3 to finally come into its own, I suspect Sony is going to milk this thing for all its worth.

MG Siegler

@blackout - yes, I think all of those would be key, though I would caution MS that perhaps looking into the mobile gaming realm might be a smart move for the future as well.

@devindra - agreed on all points, they just better be sure not to fall too far behind the other companies new releases - even if the news ones aren't all that technologically superior (which i doubt they would be), just that illusion of superiority that comes from newness could be troublesome if the next-next gen consoles are launched at a good price point.

Sacramento

Just recently some higher up in Mircosoft has said that they will be giving the 360 as much long lifespan and there are currently no plans to produce the next system.