Good Calls, Better Calls

It’s nice to see that VentureBeat is moving up the Pundit Watch leaderboard. Pundit Watch is a service by hubdub.com that tracks predictions made on various things and gives them a stock-like value which cashes out when the prediction is right or wrong.

I wrote up some of its strengths and weaknesses previously here.

VenutreBeat is now #2 on the list thanks in large part of many correct predictions about the Apple announcements recently. We finally passed that pesky Perez Hilton.

Now if only I got bonus points for my ParisLemon predictions… #2 is looking particularly good at the moment:

2) Microsoft and Google’s next big battle will be over who gets the rights to purchase at least part of Yahoo
While many are still waiting for Yahoo to turn around, it seems to be increasingly questionable as to if they can. I don’t think they’d want to sell completely but perhaps take an investment injection such as Apple did from Microsoft many years ago and Facebook did recently from Microsoft. If Google were to win this, look for Microsoft to push for more anti-trust hearings. If Microsoft wins, look for Google to buy a half-dozen other companies Microsoft wants but won’t sell to MS.

#15 is looking pretty good now as well:

15) GPS will be all the rage in consumer goods
Cars, cellphones, cameras. Parents tracking kids. Boyfriends tracking girlfriends. Someone tracking all of us – but we’ll call it something more friendly – ‘geotagging’. Of course the iPhone will gain GPS as well.

[Update]: VentureBeat is now #1!

  • nigeleccles
    And now you are top (you just passed SAI).


    I intended to reply to your VB post but got caught up in the launch. On the flaws you mentioned we try to take the readers perspective and interprete the post as we expect most readers would interprete it. For example, if you made a prediction that Yahoo would do a deal with Google 'soon' then we would interpret soon in the context of that story. Reporting of rumors we also consider to be a prediction unless the writer specifically says they don't believe them. The rationale is why would a journalist report a rumor without caveat if they didn't think that there is a good chance it is true.



    The other thing is that different predictions enter the system at different prices. Therefore if you make a prediction on something that is unlikely (Microsoft to gain share in search?) then there is a greater pay-off.



    One open question for us is how tracking pundits will affect whether they will make more or less, more precise or less precise predictions. We will see...



    Nigel @ Hubdub
  • MG Siegler
    Thanks Nigel. Good explanations. I realize it can't be a perfect system, but I do enjoy following it and think you guys are doing a good job.


    Obviously, we're #1 right :)
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