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Apple 2.0's Q1 2012 "Whisper" Numbers

Based on six analysts with the best track records, Philip Elmer-DeWitt compiles his best guess for the Q1 (Apple’s holiday quarter) numbers Apple will announce tomorrow. These are analysts who typically update their numbers over time and, notably, aren’t necessarily Wall Street analysts (who generally blow at guessing about all things Apple-related).

If he’s close, my prediction from October 18 (the day Apple announced Q4 numbers) that this quarter would not only be Apple’s first $30 billion quarter, but first $40 billion quarter, looks very good. Elmer-DeWitt’s numbers have revenues coming in at a cool $42.76 billion.

Such a number would constitute a massive blow-out. Apple’s previous revenue record is $28.57 billion, hit in Q3 2011. Again, if the numbers hold, Apple could see a quarter almost exactly 50% better than their previous record quarter. That would be insane.

It would also further prove that last quarter’s miss was simply because analysts were lazy and failed to recognize the impact moving the iPhone launch a quarter later would have.

It’s worth noting that Elmer-DeWitt’s whisper numbers were off last quarter as well. But again, all analysts were off, so it’s no surprise that an average of the best would be off as well.

DeWitt’s craziest number has to be iPhone sales of 33 million. The previous record was 20.24 million iPhones sold (again, in Q3 2011). It would also be eerily close to the projection of 34 million iPhones sold if you extrapolated out Verizon’s stated numbers. And it would directly speak to the recent NPD and Nielsen numbers that iPhone has closed the gap with Android sales in the U.S.