Remember when Charles Arthur looked at the numbers based on early court documents and extrapolated that Google may have made 4x off of the iPhone versus Android? Remember when some jumped on it as likely being bullshit? Looks like he wasn’t far off at all.
As you’d expect, Google is still trying to spin this, but the court documents don’t lie. In 2010, Google itself projected making $278.1 million off of Android. Of that, $158.9 million was expected to be on ads versus just $3.8 million from app sales. They were making much more off of the iPhone.
And the overall projections may be high if the horribly off projections Google had for Android Market music sales are any indication. Reports Nilay Patel:
Google was also planning on boosting all these numbers significantly with its music service — Rubin listed “behind on music, video, books” as one of Android’s “lowlights” — and predicted that it would do $738m in music revenue in 2011 and nearly $1.5 billion in 2012. Those numbers have proven to be hugely optimistic…
I’ll say. Google still doesn’t even have a deal with Warner to sell their music. They’ve been trying to get that deal for a full two years now and have failed for a full two years now.