Nick Bilton arguing that Apple Stores could help push Apple towards the magical $1 trillion market cap valuation:
These stores make an average of $5,647 in sales per square foot. By comparison, shopping malls in the United States make an average of $341 in sales per square foot.
That’s a massive stat, but the problem with the post is that there are so many variables that could help or hurt Apple here — and many are completely out of their control. Bilton uses Microsoft as an example of a tech company that was previously as lofty, noting how far they’ve fallen since — but that fall was largely a result of the tech bubble bursting a dozen years ago (and, to a lesser extent, the housing bubble bursting eight years after that).
For Apple to hit a trillion, larger market forces have to be favorable as well. And really, who the hell knows what else?
I think back to an article of mine looking at the numbers and wondering if Apple might be able to overtake Exxon as the most valuable company in the world. I thought it was possible (not for sure, mind you), but could take six months or more of the company firing on all cylinders. It ended up taking about six weeks.
So yes, Apple could hit a trillion dollar market cap. It could happen in 2015, as Bilton’s tech experts extrapolate. But it’s just as likely that it will happen next year. Or never.