Apple is eventually doomed. Yes, the most valuable company on the planet will slowly fade into stagnant mediocrity. It will be replaced by something that they will not predict and they will not see coming. This horrifically efficient culling is a fact of life in technology because it is an industry populated by a demographic intent not on building a better mousetrap, but who avidly ask, “Why the hell do we need mousetraps?”
That’s exactly right. Yes, Apple will eventually fall because guess what? All companies do. But it won’t be because someone like Microsoft or Google builds a better tablet or smartphone. It will be because another company you’ve never heard of builds something that makes tablets and smartphones obsolete.
This is the main problem I have with all of the recent “Apple is failing” stories. All seem to imply that missteps will allow their big rivals to take over Apple’s position of power. That’s not going to happen.
That’s why Lopp’s last point is so important: while the ouster of Scott Forstall makes a ton of sense from an org perspective as it seem to make Apple more stable, maybe that’s not the best thing in the world for Apple going forward. If they’re going to defeat these unknown assailants with unknown products in the future, maybe Apple (and really, any company) needs some level of instability to keep the creative juices flowing. At the very least, it makes it hard for anyone to know what and how to attack.