I agree 100 percent with everything Fred Wilson says here. The consumer startup space is entering a sort of hibernation (or has already entered it). It will take a new paradigm shift to wake it up again. Maybe that’s what’s next after mobile, or maybe it’s “mobile” veering in a new direction (connected devices?) that leads to new ideas. It’s hard to say right now.
But make no mistake, the consumer space will awaken again, because it always does. Times change and startups are always there to help facilitate that change. The ones at the early stages of those shifts are far more likely to succeed, so in that regard, this time of hibernation should be a great time to start something. But you’re going to have to take a gamble on what that something should be — and we’re going to have to take a gamble on funding those things. That’s how it works.
But again, I don’t view this period of hibernation as a bad thing. The past year (and really the past couple of years) has brought far too many “me too” ideas. And a lot of entrepreneurs make the mistake of thinking those ideas should be their own startups. They shouldn’t. So this cycle is quite natural.
To mix metaphors: the forest has to be purged so it can start to grow again.