All this in mind, it seems more likely that Mac sales will either stay flat or have started their long-term decline than they’ll ever reach, say, 10 million in a quarter.
I think Frommer is directionally correct — going forward, growth is all about tablets and smartphones, not PCs (be they Windows or Mac machines). Duh. But I actually thought Tim Cook’s explanation for the (big) decline in Mac sales was perfectly reasonable and rational — timing is everything. You cannot sell what you cannot ship.
I suspect that when Apple moves the MacBook Air to retina screens next year (and perhaps iMacs the year after that?) there will be a surge in sales again. I talk to a lot of people who use Macs and all seem to be waiting for that product. I happen to think the 13-inch retina MacBook Pro is close to the perfect MacBook, but a retina Air would rule them all.