Tablets Playing Out More Like Smartphones, Not PCs

I’m generally wary of these estimates (see: netbook projections from a few years ago), but even if IDC is off by a lot, this should be extremely troubling for Microsoft:

IDC said tablets running Microsoft’s Windows 8 platform would grow their market share from 1 percent last year to 7.4 percent in 2017.

Tablets running the Windows RT operating system, which is not compatible with older software that runs on Windows, will see their market share stay below 3 percent through 2017, IDC said.

The tablet market is expected to be close to 200 million units shipped in 2013. According to IDC, the iPad will control about half of that market with all the various Android tablets controlling the other half. Microsoft will be a non-player.

And even by 2017 — four full years from now — IDC doesn’t think Microsoft will control even 10 percent of the market. Yikes.