John Gruber, ripping apart this piece by Joe Nocera:
The iPad was “just a big iPhone” when it was unveiled in 2010; today it’s hailed as Apple’s last great new product. My guess is we’ll see the same reaction to whatever Apple releases this year. It takes years for even the most amazing of new products — the iPhone, for example — to prove themselves on the market. It’s a long game.
Even then — come, say, 2017, when Apple is reaping billions in profits from some product first introduced this year — the doomed-without-Jobs crowd could (and I bet will) just argue that the product succeeded only because it had been conceived while Steve Jobs was alive. It’ll never stop.
A fun exercise would be to write Apple critiques years in advance and see just how close they are when the stories hit in the future. I bet they’d be pretty close. It’s like paint-by-numbers for the tech press.