So, the only thing I know for sure is that the next iPhone is launching in the fall. And the only reason I know that is because Apple is not going to launch iOS 5 without the new hardware. And iOS 5 development is wrapping up and all indications are that it will hit the stated fall release. 

Charles Arthur’s logic in taking down John Paczkowski’s report that the iPhone 5 will launch in October seems a bit fuzzy though. 

Arthur states that iOS 5 looks to be “rolling towards a September release” but gives no real reason why he thinks that other than what I just stated, it looks about done. But all that means is that Apple can release it whenever they choose. And again, it will come with new hardware.

He also cites carrier sources as saying they’re being shipped the new hardware under lock and key. That’s the hot story of the day. But again, that doesn’t mean too much for Apple. Apple will launch the thing when it’s ready.

Arthur also brings up the Windows Phone “Mango” cycle for no apparent reason. The iPhone 5 is hardware, Mango is software. Totally different. There are no handset makers that need to get their hands on the iPhone 5. Apple makes it.

He also brings up “Antennagate” for good measure. Remember, everyone stated this was a colossal fuck up that would sink the iPhone because the devices weren’t tested enough. Of course they actually were. And Apple sold over 20 million units of the “defective” device last quarter. A record.

But the real kicker is Arthur’s logic that the iPhone will come in September because Steve Jobs himself has said they like their products to have as much time as possible on the market to sell.

Uh, no shit.

If Apple releases the iPhone 5 in October rather than September, it won’t be them holding it back for no reason. It will be because they feel that’s the timeframe they’ll be able to nail a successful launch.

Arthur states that he doesn’t think there are any supply constraints holding the iPhone 5 back, but I have a hard time believing he actually knows that. Even the iPad 2 was constrained until very recently, and it led to less sales. These things are fluid, Apple runs such a tight ship in the supply chain that seemingly minor hiccups can affect things.

So September or October? I don’t know. It will be one of them. Or what about this: Apple announces iPhone 5 in September for an October release? 

Apple always announces the device before it goes on sale. Sometimes it’s just a couple of weeks before, sometimes it’s a number of weeks before (and with the first iPhone, it was months before).

But perhaps history shouldn’t be any guide here. After all, Apple has never released an iPhone in any time other than the summer. This year is different. 

Also, we’re arguing over a few weeks here.