sootmann asked:

So are you (and lefsetz) saying that existing automakers will be replaced by appliance-like Tesla-type makers, or that people will just start not driving? I get that kids today don't care about getting their licenses at 16-years-and-one-day like we used to, but if you think people will quit buying cars altogether, I doubt it. Kids will want cars once they have kids. What, you think you're gonna use Lyft to go school-practice-practice-store-home? That 300M people will move into walkable cities?

Yes, I believe we’re entering a time of decline for driving itself — certainly amongst the younger generations. It may be hard to see now because our world (especially in the U.S.) is so car-centric. But the pieces are coming into place that makes owning a car not only less attractive, but often unnecessary. 

Sure, it will hit dense urban areas first. But again, I see no reason why this doesn’t spread to all but the most remote reaches of the country. Things tend to sound crazy before they’re suddenly reality.

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