As opposed to what, exactly?

I personally think the key to iTV success will be the sales figures for Altoids next year. 

The smoke around the Apple Television continues to billow, ever-thicker. But this latest report by Jessica Vascellaro and Sam Schechner for The Wall Street Journal sure makes it seem as if things are still in the fairly early stages. It sounds like Apple is putting a lot of options out there in their talks with the media companies to see what sticks.

If that’s correct, I say there’s no way we see an Apple Television until mid-2013 at the earliest. But perhaps Apple is farther along and is just holding their cards really close to the vest (likely knowing that the media industry is just about the worst when it comes to the leaking of information).

But despite years of skepticism by many, I continue to believe this is happening. You don’t have to look past this paragraph in the WSJ piece to realize why:

The pace of change puts media companies that make TV shows and program TV channels in a dilemma. On one hand, they hope that they can increase their profits by selling new services on new devices. But they are worried that a proliferation of new services could undermine the existing TV business, which brings in more than $150 billion a year in the U.S. in advertising and consumer spending on monthly TV subscriptions from cable, satellite and telecommunications companies.

They’re throttling innovation so as not to disturb their current cash cows. That’s not a winning strategy, it’s a losing one. And someone is going to come along and hand their asses to them eventually. It may be Apple, or it may be someone who can do it sooner. 

Way too much smoke gathering for there not to be some kind of fire. The real question: just how far along is this project?

Steve Jobs telling Walter Isaacson, “I finally cracked it” sure sounds promising. But in the 60 Minutes episode about the biography, Isaacson notes that the one area Jobs would have liked to transform was television — indicating that it may not happen. Of course, Isaacson could have just phrased it that way since Jobs unfortunately will not be around when the transformation happens.

Hardware and software are one thing. Apple will eventually get to where they need to be on those, no question. The true question is the content. An Apple television is great. An Apple television that transforms the television landscape in the same way that Apple transformed the mobile phone landscape is what we really need.

If Apple can’t get there, this may be just another project being worked on at Apple that doesn’t see the light of day. But Jobs’ comment and all this smoke sure seem to suggest otherwise. 

That’s what Steve Jobs revealed to Walter Isaacson in an interview for his forthcoming biography.

What was he talking about? The often rumored (and just as often dismissed) Apple television. Not the Apple TV, the current product, a full fledged television. 

Six months ago, I laid out why I thought an Apple television was actually coming despite (and perhaps because of) the current conventional wisdom that it’s a low-margin business that Apple won’t bother with. My original thesis holds: the current television experience is shit from a user perspective. It’s popular despite being severely hamstrung by the powers that be (mainly the cable companies).

If Apple can do to this market what they did to the phone market — the sky is very much the limit. The convergence of computing and the living room will finally be realized. 

Jobs’ quote above is key. He didn’t just reveal that Apple was thinking about the Apple television, but that he “cracked it”. That’s very exciting. It reminds me of Alan Bradley’s quote from Tron: Legacy. Talking about the missing Kevin Flynn:

Sam, two nights before he disappeared, he came to my house. “I’ve cracked it!” He kept saying.

While I’m clearly all for this idea (and I do continue to believe that Apple will eventually enter this market), I think a prediction of for this year sounds way too aggressive and optimistic. 

And wait, did I read “team up with a major OEM”? Yeah…

From my understanding, Apple has been pleasantly surprised by the revamped, $99 Apple TV’s reception. And I think they’re going to explore some more things there first. Things like allowing apps to beam from iPhone/iPad to the Apple TV.

The most interesting thing to me in this article is the following quote:

“blow Netflix and all those other guys away”

Of the online video models out there right now, I do believe that Netflix is the one that most intrigues Apple. And when something intrigues them…

But wait. Netflix is already on the Apple TV and iPads/iPhones/etc. Ah, true! Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.