Remember when Charles Arthur looked at the numbers based on early court documents and extrapolated that Google may have made 4x off of the iPhone versus Android? Remember when some jumped on it as likely being bullshit? Looks like he wasn’t far off at all. 

As you’d expect, Google is still trying to spin this, but the court documents don’t lie. In 2010, Google itself projected making $278.1 million off of Android. Of that, $158.9 million was expected to be on ads versus just $3.8 million from app sales. They were making much more off of the iPhone.

And the overall projections may be high if the horribly off projections Google had for Android Market music sales are any indication. Reports Nilay Patel:

Google was also planning on boosting all these numbers significantly with its music service — Rubin listed “behind on music, video, books” as one of Android’s “lowlights” — and predicted that it would do $738m in music revenue in 2011 and nearly $1.5 billion in 2012. Those numbers have proven to be hugely optimistic…

I’ll say. Google still doesn’t even have a deal with Warner to sell their music. They’ve been trying to get that deal for a full two years now and have failed for a full two years now.

Pre-iPhone, this is what Google’s vision of the future of smartphones looked like.

Enough said.

This post should have actually been titled “Why Facebook Needs To Build Their Own Phone”. 

Everything I hear indicates that Facebook’s once big HTML5 dreams keep getting pushed and pushed and pushed. It’s a noble cause, but it’s also one they have to take up, since they don’t control the key platforms: iOS and Android. 

All the finger-crossing hasn’t worked. And Facebook grows impatient. Building their own browser may be the first step. But eventually, the phone will have to come.

Verizon sold 6.3 million smartphones last quarter. The quick breakdown using my math skills:

3.2 million iPhones.

3.1 million non-iPhones.

Android is still winning by some metric, I’m sure. Ridiculous phones sold with styluses, perhaps? Wait, no, that’s AT&T.

Also note that 3.2 million iPhones is a drop from the 4.3 million iPhones Verizon sold last quarter — which isn’t a surprise given that last quarter was the holiday quarter and the first quarter the iPhone 4S was on sale. These numbers seems in line my iPhone sales prediction.

But, as Eric Slivka notes, the iPhone 4S also went on sale in China and on China Telecom for the first time last quarter. This may offset the holiday drop-off in the U.S. We’ll find out next week.

Matthew Lynn, January 14, 2007:

To its many fans, Apple is more of a religious cult than a company. An iToaster that downloads music while toasting bread would probably get the same kind of worldwide attention.

And:

Don’t let that fool you into thinking that it matters. The big competitors in the mobile-phone industry such as Nokia Oyj and Motorola Inc. won’t be whispering nervously into their clamshells over a new threat to their business.

And:

First, Apple is late to this party. The company didn’t invent the personal computer or MP3 player, but it was among the pioneers of both products. Yet there is no shortage of phones out there. There are already big companies that dominate the space, all of whom will defend their turf. That means Apple will have to fight hard for every sale.

And:

Yet Apple has never been good at working with other companies. If it knew how to do that, it would be Microsoft Corp.

And:

Lastly, the iPhone is a defensive product. It is mainly designed to protect the iPod, which is coming under attack from mobile manufacturers adding music players to their handsets.

And:

It won’t come from the iPhone. Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won’t make a long-term mark on the industry.

Nailed it.

I mean…

I’m absolutely flabbergasted. Where to begin? Nokia Oyj?!

Hindsight is 20/20 and all that. But come on. What a huge jackass. If he had said the exact opposite of everything he said, he would have been much closer to the truth than he was.

[thanks Tobin]

Apple’s stock took a dip today back below $600 a share. Some are citing concern that carriers will cut the subsidies they pay Apple for the iPhone as the reason for the drop.

There hasn’t been much in terms of tangible evidence that this is even a possibility, but the writing does seem to be slowly appearing on the wall. The carriers are all still extremely profitable and they do very well selling the iPhone, but they do better on a per-device basis selling other phones because of the subsidy they must pay Apple. 

Because the iPhone is the most popular single device across the carriers, they’re all seeing certain numbers slip as a result. The question becomes do the three U.S. carriers with the iPhone (Verizon, AT&T, and Sprint) have enough leverage to push back and make Apple take a lower cut? 

I don’t know, but I do know the leverage they will try to use: Android.

But the fact that Apple has a fourth carrier, T-Mobile, chomping at the bit to pay them the same subsidy, doesn’t speak well for this strategy. Collectively, they all still need the iPhone more than Apple needs any one of them. So unless they team up (collusion?) to put Apple in a position with no carriers willing to pay them what they want, I just don’t see things changing.

Sadly, I still think the carriers will keep on screwing with customers (rate hike here, rate change there) before they screw with Apple.

Philip Elmer-DeWitt looks across the field to find that the bets on how many iPhones Apple sold last quarter range from 26 million to 44 million (!).  

To put things in perspective, during Apple’s last quarter — the holiday quarter — the “holy fucking shit” quarter — they sold 37 million iPhones. By far a record — nearly double the previous record.

By my count, 13 analysts (both profession and independent) on Elmer-DeWitt’s list think they’re going to sell more than that record number this quarter. Wow.

My sense is that a number of analyst believe this will be the case because Apple actually sold more iPhones in Q2 last year than in Q1. But remember that the Verizon iPhone was first introduced into the market at the time, juicing sales.

I have no real insight here, but my guess would be closer to 30 million iPhones sold last quarter. That would still be 10 million more iPhones sold than Apple’s second-best iPhone quarter ever (Q3 2011). In my view, the 37 million blowout happened because of pent-up demand due to the delayed release cycle of the iPhone last year. 

I simply can’t imagine Apple beating that number until the next iPhone launch, but I could be wrong. And if I am, I shudder at the thought of what numbers Apple is going to post in a non-holiday quarter.

It’s too bad the Japanese hate the iPhone or Apple might have finished better than first.