Jim Dalrymple:

The PC industry has spent an incredible amount of time and money trying to convince us that computers (netbooks or ultrabooks) are what we really want to use. The problem is, that’s not true.

The problem PC makers face (but most don’t seem to realize) is that using a computer is not a natural thing. It’s weird to type on a keyboard and look down or forward at a screen. It’s weird to use a mouse. Or a touchpad. Much more natural is holding something in your hands and touching it to manipulate what’s on the screen. A tablet. The iPad. 

The keyboard itself is unnatural. It’s something that kids have to take some time to learn because the letters are completely out of order. Just look down for a second — what the fuck? Speaking is much more natural. Siri.

Speaking, of course, isn’t perfect in all situations. But I think the combination of touch + Siri (with a keyboard fallback) is bringing us closer to a much more natural form of computing. One that makes sense to children without much explanation. 

That’s where we’re heading. Right now.

Great look back by Macstories’ Federico Viticci at the evolution of the “PC vs. iPad” debate over the past few years.

In a few years, we’re all going to look up from our iPads and laugh at this.

There are two PC makers that actually have any sort of growth year-over-year: Apple and “Others”. And remarkably, Apple’s growth is bigger than even “Others” — all the PC makers not in the top 5 — combined.

If the current trends continue (as they have been for some time now — look at the chart in the MacRumors post), Apple is poised to become the top PC maker (in terms of shipments) in about 3 years.

But before that happens, such a title will continue to matter less and less. What will matter is who the top tablet and smartphone makers are. And even more, who is making the most money from all of this? Apple has already won.

New HP CEO Meg Whitman acknowledges the trend happening. Even if you don’t count the iPad (which you probably should), Apple’s share of the PC market continues to rise slow and steady and could eventually push Apple past HP as the top computer maker.

While everyone is busy debating if iOS/Android will be a repeat of the Mac/Windows war, they’re missing the flipside. The Mac/Windows race is starting to look more like the iOS/Android one. That is, Apple is the big single brand in terms of units, but as one self-contained player, they can’t overtake the larger ecosystem (Windows and Android). 

But it doesn’t matter like it used to. Times have changed. Developers go where they can make money and right now Apple’s smaller but much more tightly integrated ecosystem is beating the larger ecosystems in this regard. 

Maybe that will change, but maybe it won’t.

One thing not up for debate: profits matter. And there’s absolutely no question that even with modest market share, Apple is crushing everyone — including all of the kings of the rival ecosystems: HP and Microsoft and Google. 

So let me get this straight: the number one PC maker in the world is bowing out of that race amid declining sales.

The number two PC maker in the world just posted a net loss in the quarter — which, by the way, is their first loss ever.

But the PC business is totally peachy keen, right, Microsoft?

Shocking.

I mean, the only way such a post would be even remotely surprising is if Frank Shaw didn’t have these feelings. Of course, he also wouldn’t work for Microsoft if that were the case, because who works for a company they think has no future? (Actually, plenty of people do — but Shaw is in a position where he certainly wouldn’t have to.)

While Shaw’s post may be obvious, also probably obvious is that I disagree with a lot of it. I don’t disagree with his main point — that the PC won’t be killed anytime soon — but I disagree with the notion of framing his entire argument this way.

When most people bring up “Post-PC”, they cite Steve Jobs’ use of the term. Again, no surprise there, he’s the man ushering in the devices of this era. Of course, he also ushered in the PC era itself, but that’s another matter. The key thing Shaw leaves out (he never mentions Jobs or Apple at all — which, again, could not be any less surprising) is that Jobs himself has said that in the Post-PC world, the PC doesn’t die, it just fades into the background of computing. It becomes the “truck,” as Jobs called it.

By saying that smartphones, tablets, etc, aren’t going to kill PCs, Shaw is distracting everyone from the real argument. He never bothers to mention that these devices could very well shove the PC out of the limelight as a consumer device. In fact, many numbers suggest this is already happening.

Yes, PCs remain better tools for creation at this point, in my view. But thinking that tablets and smartphones won’t continue to improve and attack that space as well is foolish. Shaw is making an argument for why the PC is better at content creation now. What about two years from now? What about five years from now?

The PC will evolve as well, but the fact of the matter is that it’s a mature product. The basics haven’t changed much in the past 20 years. The specs increase, and the bodies slightly morph (though, again, you could credit Apple with that more than anyone else), but the real action and innovation is happening outside the walls of the PC.

Oh, but Windows 8 will change that! We’ll see. Software is great, but it can only do so much. I’d have more faith in Microsoft transforming the PC for the future if they made PCs as well. Instead, HP does.

Oh. Wait.

No matter what you think of HP’s big moves this past week, their step away from the PC world speaks volumes. They’re not doing it because they’re batshit crazy. They’re doing it because sales are declining and the margins suck. They’re doing it because they can’t beat Apple.

It’s not a good sign for an industry when the leader of that industry quits and walks away. No amount of spin can change that.