lilly:

I picked up a phrase some time ago that I think applies: “The next big thing is always beneath contempt.” Implication being that it is, of course, until it isn’t. Until it’s too big to ignore. This has happened over and over again in our society. In the middle ages, people assumed that no serious discussion could happen in anything but Latin — the so-called “vulgar” languages had no merit. And writers assumed that nothing interesting or lasting would come from this new medium of television. And, I think, people assume right now that nothing important will be created from a 10” touch screen without a keyboard (let alone a tiny 3.5” screen)….

Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep.

That’s not IBM. That’s not HP. That’s Dell.

But you’ll notice the trend. Everyone is getting out of the PC business because it’s a shitty business to be in.

IBM was way ahead of the curve (and is reaping the rewards as a result). While seemingly insane at the time, HP had the right idea last year (then backtracked and got burned last quarter). Now Dell.

You often hear the argument that Apple will eventually be squeezed in their high-margin hardware businesses. That cheaper components will drive costs down and cheap products will win. But that “win” comes with an asterisk. It’s a short-lived win. Eventually, it will turn to a loss both figuratively and literally. 

One of Apple’s strengths is the quality of their products, which allows for better margins. But their real strength is staying ahead of trends. By the time Apple dropped “Computer” from their name in 2007, they were already a different company.

They still make computers, but they have long since become a secondary business massively trumped by other businesses (first the iPod, then the iPhone, now the iPad).

Dell has lacked such foresight. Maybe it’s too late now, or maybe not. But I like John Gruber’s suggestion.

Update: As Jack Schofield points out, Dell also dropped “Computer” from their name in 2003. The difference is that when Apple did it, they were actually becoming a different company. Dell was doing the same old — which is why they had to make that statement today, nearly a decade later — though they were thinking about getting into printers. Which is funny for an entirely different reason.

Cue dozens of people screaming bloody murder: “THE IPAD IS NOT A PC!!!!!!!”

Cue millions of the rest of us laughing at those people.

Just as with the move from desktops to laptops, the transition to tablets (or “pads” as Canalys humorously refers to them) is underway.

“But, but, but… it doesn’t have a keyboard!” Yes it does.

“But, but, but… it doesn’t have a physical keyboard!” How’s that argument working out for RIM?

“But, but, but… it doesn’t run PC software!” Who gives a shit? Clearly not the people buying millions of the devices each quarter.

All you need to know about the “is the iPad a PC?” argument: are people buying them instead of traditional PCs? Sure looks like it. 

Update: Including two tweets (at Anthony Ha’s request):

Lot of response there (as expected). Main point: arguing over definition of “PC” is stupid and totally missing the actual point.

— MG Siegler (@parislemon) January 31, 2012

“PC” is about how people use and interact with computers, not what it looks like. Who cares what it looks like?

— MG Siegler (@parislemon) January 31, 2012