Speaking of blues… “Schumpeter” of The Economist has this to say about Microsoft and Windows 8:
This is why Windows 8’s poor performance matters. It was an attempt to solve the innovator’s dilemma by creating an operating system and a user interface for both PCs and mobiles. Mr Ballmer hoped that consumers would want to move effortlessly from PCs to tablets to smartphones—and that Microsoft would be able to invade the mobile markets while simultaneously reigniting demand for its core PC products. But so far the reverse has happened: Microsoft has reinforced suspicions that it does not understand hand-held devices while simultaneously alienating its core PC users. It is possible that Microsoft will be able to solve this problem with future iterations of Windows 8. But it is looking likely that the two types of device need different operating systems. Microsoft’s biggest rival, Apple, has kept the two devices separate. That bodes ill for Mr Ballmer’s strategy. The comparison with New Coke actually understates Microsoft’s problem. Nothing forced Coca-Cola to introduce New Coke: tongues and throats do not change much. And all the firm had to do to rectify its error was to bring back the old version. Technology firms, in contrast, must innovate to survive. Restoring the start button will not restore Microsoft to its former glory.
It’s not that Microsoft isn’t trying to innovate, it’s that the type of innovation they chose to move forward with was ill-conceived. And this may well end up hastening their long-term woes. It’s the proverbial “rock and hard place”. It’s a textbook example of why innovators have dilemmas.
Austin Carr:
Adding the Start button back to Windows would be another example in a long line of half-measures. According to early reports, a reintroduced Start button wouldn’t even function the traditional way. Instead of showing you a Start menu when the button is clicked, Windows would supposedly just kick you back to the tile interface, a user experience not likely to quiet dissatisfied users. It’s another instance of Microsoft’s unwillingness to fully commit to the redesign of Windows 8—or a full retreat back to the old design.
No compro… ah, forget it.
Tom Warren:
Even with Microsoft’s own Windows 8 license figures, and market research estimates, it’s worth noting that these calculations are based on shipments. They do not reflect how many consumers have purchased these devices. Until Microsoft, or other researchers, provide a solid breakdown of sales, nobody outside of Redmond really knows exactly how Windows 8 is doing. For now, it looks like slow progress in a huge, risky bet that Microsoft is willing to stick at for a long time.
The silence. It’s deafening.
Charles Arthur explains this well in plain English:
Despite the brave top-line numbers, Microsoft’s Windows business is actually hurting. Surface isn’t contributing much yet, traditional PC sales are sliding, it doesn’t have a tablet competitor yet (though Klein said clearly that it will have a “smaller” competitor – aka a rival to the iPad mini – soon enough), and the only thing really keeping everyone smiling is upgrades from businesses facing the wall of XP’s end of life.
All of this is masking the inevitable.
Though I do have to give props to Microsoft for putting the Surface hardware under the Windows Division. Devices obviously generate far more revenue than software. And even though sales haven’t been great, this is a pretty good bottom-line mask. For now.
Mary Jo Foley of ZDNet on Microsoft’s earnings today:
The Windows division posted revenues of $5.7 billion for the quarter. After adjusting for the $1.1 billion of revenue related to the Windows Upgrade Offer, the Windows division’s revenue was flat. Windows client net income for the third fiscal quarter of 2013 was $3.46 billion, up from $2.98 billion for the same quarter a year ago.
Some Microsoft watchers seem downright enthusiastic that the numbers were flat. After all, the earlier PC shipment estimates indicated they could have been much worse!
That’s ridiculous.
The (revenue) numbers were flat year-to-year even though Microsoft put a major new version of Windows on the market. In what universe is that good or even decent news?
I had a sense this is exactly what we’d see today. There are some other variables, like pre-existing OEM deals and enterprise volume licensing, that are masking what is pretty obvious: Windows 8 is a total nightmare. I doubt even the shiniest gloss will cover that up next quarter.
As for the glaring omission — you know, actual sales numbers, Foley:
I’m curious when and if Microsoft provides a new update on number of Window 8 licenses sold. Maybe that will happen at Computex or TechEd North America — both happening the first week of June this year? In any case, today’s silence on this front is … interesting.
Indeed.
Adrian Kingsley-Hughes for ZDNet on the world’s greatest shitshow:
Many PC OEMs are dissatisfied with what Microsoft has done with Windows 8 and the way the company has handled the negative response to the operating system. Privately, one OEM source told me that Microsoft is “destroying” the PC industry, while another claimed that Windows 8 has “handed over millions of customers to Apple.”
I also like Kingsley-Hughes’ use of the term “U-turn” with regard to Windows 8.1. Seems appropriate. Slightly less snarky than, Windows 8: Compromise Edition.
Roger Kay for Forbes:
With Windows 8, Microsoft entirely screwed the pooch. A badly conceived OS, designed to compete with Apple’s iOS and yet remain a traditional PC, did neither. It only confused and repelled users. Windows 7, a decent replacement for Windows XP, finally, could have sustained the industry easily for a decade.
The dilemma facing the industry is familiar to anyone who knows the children’s “cookie jar” story: if you drop half the cookies, you can take your hand out of the jar with some cookies and then go back for another modest handful. Instead, we have the stupid industry, sitting there on the stool with its hand in the cookie jar, fistful of cookies unable to pass the rim, red-faced, crying, and looking like a fool.
No compromise, indeed.
It should be noted that Kay has a rather odd conflict: his firm, Endpoint, used to consult for Microsoft. But in the past year, Microsoft terminated the relationship. Why? In Kay’s own words:
Because they don’t like independent analysts, who have to tell it like it is even when the picture isn’t pretty. They want “message force multipliers,” tame hacks who will help their public relations efforts. Tell them what they don’t want to hear, and you’re shown the door.
No compromise, indeed.
John Paczkowski writing for AllThingsD in September of last year:
“One year from now, between Windows phones, Windows tablets and Windows PCs, we’ll see close to … 400 million new devices running those new operating systems,” Ballmer said during the unveiling of Nokia’s new Lumia smartphones this morning. “Those devices running Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 represent the single largest opportunity for software developers today. Four hundred million per year? That is unrivaled. I’ll bet you right now, the next app developer to hit it really big will do so on Windows.”
As Horace Dediu quipped on Twitter yesterday, “Only 320 million to go.”
I know I already snarked this up. But it really is incredible that not only is Microsoft’s worst nightmare coming true, it’s all playing out in a way that’s exactly the opposite of how they thought it would.
Then-Windows-chief Steven Sinofsky, talking about Windows 8 just seven months ago:
Our goal was a no compromise design.
And:
We chose to take the approach of building a design without compromise.
And:
You don’t have to compromise!
And:
Our design goal was clear: no compromises.
Fast forward to today. Ian Sherr reporting for The Wall Street Journal on the latest PC numbers:
Indeed, IDC said that Windows 8 hasn’t only failed to spur more PC demand but has actually exacerbated the slowdown—confusing consumers with features that don’t excel in a tablet mode and compromise the traditional PC experience.
I mean, the dichotomy is almost poetic. Especially to those of us who knew that this is exactly what would happen.
Ian Sherr for WSJ citing the latest numbers from IDC:
Worldwide shipments of personal computers fell 13.9% in the first quarter, according to market researcher IDC, in the biggest decline since the firm began issuing quarterly numbers in 1994.
And:
Indeed, IDC said that Windows 8 hasn’t only failed to spur more PC demand but has actually exacerbated the slowdown—confusing consumers with features that don’t excel in a tablet mode and compromise the traditional PC experience.
Wait. “Compromise”? What happened to “no compromise”?
Microsoft’s Brandon LeBlanc on the Windows Blog almost exactly one year ago:
All editions of Windows 8 offer a no-compromise experience.
I’m confused.
Actually, no, I’m not.
