Citing the fact that the iPhone now accounts for just about 60% of smartphone sales at the top three U.S. carriers, easily besting all of the Android phones out there combined, Jay Yarow writes:

This very well could be the beginning of the end for Google’s mobile operating system.

In September 2010, I wrote “Is Android Surging Only Because Apple Is Letting It?” I followed this up in June 2011 with “The Verizon iPhone Halted Android’s Surge. The iPhone 5 Could Reverse It.”

Both posts were extremely controversial when they were published. But looking back, they sure seem to be pretty spot-on (well, except for the iPhone 5 part, just sub the iPhone 4S in there). Android was “winning” in the U.S. market because the iPhone was only on one carrier, and not even the largest carrier.

This should not be controversial now. It should be viewed as fact, as the numbers indicate. 

But in what may be a shock to some of you, I’m not nearly as bearish on Android right now as Yarow (and by extension, Raymond James analyst Tavis McCourt). I think Android will be fine because Apple will never fill every market need. 

Apple is smartly focused on China right now, which has a quickly maturing middle class. But I can’t see them competing with all those ultra-cheap phones that Android can enable — why would they? 

In the U.S., I think the iPhone will continue to dominate as the single most popular device for the foreseeable future, but Android as a whole will hang around as a popular alternative. 

Probably around late summer every year going forward, iPhone sales will dip ahead of the expected new device and some Android manufacturer will find a way to capitalize, rising the entire ecosystem’s share as a result. But it will always be short-lived. The new iPhone will come along and crush it. 

Remember too that the iPhone isn’t even on all four major U.S. carriers yet, something which T-Mobile clearly isn’t too happy about. Hard to see how that doesn’t change this year.

Verizon sold 6.3 million smartphones last quarter. The quick breakdown using my math skills:

3.2 million iPhones.

3.1 million non-iPhones.

Android is still winning by some metric, I’m sure. Ridiculous phones sold with styluses, perhaps? Wait, no, that’s AT&T.

Also note that 3.2 million iPhones is a drop from the 4.3 million iPhones Verizon sold last quarter — which isn’t a surprise given that last quarter was the holiday quarter and the first quarter the iPhone 4S was on sale. These numbers seems in line my iPhone sales prediction.

But, as Eric Slivka notes, the iPhone 4S also went on sale in China and on China Telecom for the first time last quarter. This may offset the holiday drop-off in the U.S. We’ll find out next week.

Apple’s stock took a dip today back below $600 a share. Some are citing concern that carriers will cut the subsidies they pay Apple for the iPhone as the reason for the drop.

There hasn’t been much in terms of tangible evidence that this is even a possibility, but the writing does seem to be slowly appearing on the wall. The carriers are all still extremely profitable and they do very well selling the iPhone, but they do better on a per-device basis selling other phones because of the subsidy they must pay Apple. 

Because the iPhone is the most popular single device across the carriers, they’re all seeing certain numbers slip as a result. The question becomes do the three U.S. carriers with the iPhone (Verizon, AT&T, and Sprint) have enough leverage to push back and make Apple take a lower cut? 

I don’t know, but I do know the leverage they will try to use: Android.

But the fact that Apple has a fourth carrier, T-Mobile, chomping at the bit to pay them the same subsidy, doesn’t speak well for this strategy. Collectively, they all still need the iPhone more than Apple needs any one of them. So unless they team up (collusion?) to put Apple in a position with no carriers willing to pay them what they want, I just don’t see things changing.

Sadly, I still think the carriers will keep on screwing with customers (rate hike here, rate change there) before they screw with Apple.

Two things:

1) The LTE data rates are in-line with the 3G rates. This is a very pleasant surprise. Still commitment-free. No contract required.

2) Of course Verizon is including the hotspot functionality with their plans while AT&T isn’t. AT&T seems to be doing everything in their power to ensure you don’t buy service from them. That’s one way to fix a crap network: drive people away. 

Rene Ritchie nailed the date of the iPad event, no reason to think he hasn’t nailed this as well (from the same source).

But I still wonder about the price points. Apple got AT&T (and later Verizon) to offer some pretty killer 3G deals. Will they be able to do the same for 4G?

Dan Frommer lays out why we should stop bitching about AT&T throttling its users. Some of the points are fair — essentially, AT&T is a company that needs to make money in order to survive — but it overlooks something fundamental: AT&T are the ones that offered the unlimited plans in the first place. If they didn’t know that would be a problem down the road, they’re idiots.

It’s true that nothing in your unlimited contract guarantees the fastest speeds possible, but let’s be honest: that’s what customers were expecting when they signed those contracts. You know it. I know it. AT&T knows it. 

Now they’re in the position where they’re punishing their best customers, which is never a good idea. 

It sucks that AT&T is so bad at maintaining its network. I’ve long since switched over to Verizon and their (3G) network is great (though slightly slower at peak speeds — but nothing like AT&T’s throttling speeds). Yes, AT&T is particularly bad in cities like San Francisco and New York, but it’s constantly rated behind Verizon nationwide as well. 

AT&T is essentially throwing their customers under the bus for their own ineptitude. The company lost money last quarter, but that was mostly related to their giant fuck-up in trying (and failing) to acquire T-Mobile. Normally, this is a profitable company. They just want to be more profitable (yes, like all companies do).

People are mad and complaining because the way AT&T has handled all of this is pretty inexcusable. They just look like greedy buffoons as a result. 

Spencer Ante and Jessica Vascellaro report:

Verizon Wireless and AT&T Inc. will sell a version of the coming iPad that runs on their newest fourth-generation wireless networks, according to people familiar with the matter, as the battle to cash in on big investments in mobile broadband heats up.

Of the supposed new features, this is number two on my excitement list — right behind that screen. I wonder how much service will cost? Apple cut a special deal for 3G rates, will they be able to do the same for 4G?

There has been a lot of talk behind the scenes, but not a lot of talk in the public recently about a few deals that sure make it seem like Verizon and Comcast are in the midst of a sort of de facto merger.

Or, said another way, collusion.

Good to see people are starting to take notice.

AT&T says that 7.6 million iPhones were activated last quarter, and 9.4 million smartphones overall were sold. Impressive numbers, but be careful.

As Eric Slivka of MacRumor notes, this doesn’t necessarily mean that 7.6 million of the 9.4 million smartphones sold were iPhones because “activated” can include older devices given away or sold through a third-party.

Still, AT&T says the “majority” of iPhone activations were of the iPhone 4S (which was new). And it’s probably safe to assume that overall, the vast majority of the activations were sales. If that is indeed the case, that means the iPhone outsold all Android phones combined on AT&T’s network.

Just like Verizon.

AT&T does say that they set a sales record for Android devices (as they did with iPhone). But they only give the vague, Amazon-like: “more than twice as many Android smartphones were sold versus the fourth quarter a year ago”. 

AT&T’s statement reads a lot like, “we love you too Android, we just love iPhone more”.

Tom Krazit for paidContent:

In the first quarter that Verizon Wireless was on board with Apple for an iPhone launch event, the company sold 4.2 million iPhones, accounting for more than half of the 7.7 million smartphones that its customers purchased in the fourth quarter.

We already knew the massive 4.2 million number. What we didn’t know was Verizon’s overall numbers. Now we do.

Every single Android phone that Verizon sells — dozens of models — combined could not outsell the iPhone last quarter. When you consider that Verizon sells plenty of BlackBerrys (and a few Windows Phones here and there) as well, this is even more incredible.

Yes, it’s just one carrier in one country. But it’s the biggest carrier in the key battleground country.

The only thing not looking good about this post from June of last year is the incorrect assumption that it would take the iPhone 5 to reverse the Android surge. It “only” took the iPhone 4S.

These numbers aren’t based on analyst checks. They aren’t based on store traffic guesses. They aren’t based on units shipped. These are Verizon’s stated quarterly sales numbers. And the iPhone dominated.